Investment markets were relatively calm in April, following a period of heightened volatility in March when banking failures in the US and Europe had shaken confidence. Most major share markets closed the month around 2% higher, extending gains in the calendar year to...
Risk assets performed strongly in January, following further indications that inflation may have peaked in key regions. Global economic growth forecasts were lowered by both the World Bank and the IMF, but investors appeared to brush off these concerns. Instead attention was focused on...
Pleasingly, global share markets fared well in October and recovered most of their lost ground from September. Locally, the S&P/ASX 200 Index re- turned 6.0%. The sharp reversal in sentiment was typical of this year; market volatility has picked up meaningfully over the past few months,...
Equity and bond markets bounced back hard from disappointing returns in June, amid suggestions that rising interest rates in key regions will help bring inflation under control. Australian shares registered gains of more than 5%. Most major overseas share markets performed even more strongly – the...
Introduction Inflationary forces continued to intensify in key regions, which suggested interest rates could be raised more quickly and more aggressively than previously anticipated. Government bond yields continued to rise sharply, resulting in negative returns from fixed income markets. The likelihood of rising borrowing costs also appeared to...
Introduction For the first time since November 2010, the RBA has raised its official cash rate - from 0.1% taking it to 0.35%. This was above market expectations for a 0.15% hike and a bit closer to our expectation for a 0.4% move suggesting that the...
Key Points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of crisis events typically...
Introduction Investors continued to focus on rampant inflation and, in turn, potential changes in monetary policy settings. By the end of January, five interest rate increases in the US had been priced in to markets; a more aggressive tightening in policy settings than had been anticipated previously. These...
Key points: 2022 is likely to be the year COVID-19 goes from being an epidemic to endemic. Expect ongoing global economic recovery, albeit with bumps along the way. The spike in inflation is partly due to pandemic driven distortions to demand and supply chains but...
Investors remained focused on rising inflation and the possibility of policy settings being tightened worldwide. Bond yields continued to rise – particularly in Australia – as investors brought forward their expectations for interest rate hikes. This hampered returns from fixed income markets. Equity markets performed much more...
